In many parts of the world, the typical family is now much smaller than it was a few generations ago, with couples having one or two children rather than five or six. In my view, this trend is driven mainly by economic and social change, and it is a largely positive development for families themselves, although it creates challenges for society as a whole.
Several factors explain why families are shrinking. Raising a child has become far more expensive, particularly in cities, where housing, childcare and education consume a large share of household income. At the same time, more women are completing higher education and building careers, which often leads them to start families later and have fewer children. Improvements in healthcare are also significant: when most children survive into adulthood, parents no longer feel the need to have many children to ensure that some will support them in old age. Finally, access to family planning gives couples far greater control over when and whether to have children.
For individual families, this change is mostly positive. Parents with fewer children can devote more time, attention and money to each one, for example by paying for extra lessons or saving for university. Women in particular gain more freedom to combine family life with paid work. However, the wider consequences are less favourable. When birth rates remain low for long periods, the population ages, leaving a smaller working-age population to fund pensions and care for the elderly. Children without siblings may also face the full responsibility of supporting their parents later in life.
In conclusion, families are becoming smaller because children are costly, women have more opportunities and child survival has improved. While this benefits individual households, governments will need to plan carefully for the economic pressures of an ageing society.